No, the Economy is Not Better

I listen to the news, read the major business websites...and despite some rather rosy projections from 'experts', I just don't believe the hype.

The economy is not recovering.

I know this because of my own series of leading indicators:

People in my job are still extremely worried about layoffs.

Goodwill is still packed with shoppers on the weekends.

eBay sales, while doing ok, are mostly to people wanting a STEEP discount, even on already less-than-retail pricing.

There's no way I'll be able to sell my house in the next year or two - heck, maybe in the next 5 years - despite my growing family's needs for more space.

So...I'm going to keep my purchases small, try to keep stocking my eBay resale items while not worrying so much about jewelry and such on Etsy (where sales are hurting), and hope that things improve before Christmas.

Ouch

So I'm doing my 2008 taxes this weekend. The personal part isn't so hard - two W-2s, some mortgage statements, few goodwill receipts.

The business part however...wow. I've easily spent 4 hours putting everything together (s0 far), and along the way, I've noticed the following:

1. The first half of the year was OK. My total sales and profits were on track to beat 2007.

2. Starting around August, everything tanked. Views and sales were DOWN. Big time.

3. Averaging the year out, my net profit actually shrank $2, about 10%.

So I'm starting to wonder...should I keep going? I'm going to report a loss for 2008 - I can deal with that, since it includes things like vehicle depreciation that don't really hit my wallet. But at what point do my profits become small enough to make this not worth my while?

You'd think that a resale business would do well right now - everybody wants a bargain, right? But I have two major problems going on. For one, more people are shopping "my" thrift stores, so there's less good inventory available. And for two - people are seriously bargain hunting. It's not enough that a brand new, designer pair of shoes is listed for 20% of original retail - darn it, that's still $50! They want it for $45, or $40...or even $20.

For the moment, I still enjoy my bargain and thrift hunting - so I'll keep at it. (And the jewelry business will stay open, just because I enjoy creating so much)

A Bit of Politics

"We interrupt the regularly scheduled blog nonsense for this minimally important political message"

I realize that talking politics on a blog is a GREAT way to get flamed - and maybe lose readers - but I just have to cover this topic. I'm a businessperson after all, and this is important.
Today, President Bush said in a speech that "I don't think we're headed to recession. But no question, we're in a slowdown."

Quite frankly, this makes me angry. I've had my small business for over a year now, worked with other online sellers for another 2 years before that - and been in the workforce in general since 2000. The economy is in rough shape. People are decreasing their spending habits - browsing plenty still, but that looking is not converting to buying at the same rate. My costs for everything are going up - not just jewelry supplies, but food, gas, electric. Inflation is definitely rearing its ugly head, and frankly it's having an impact on my bank account.

To have our President say that this is a mere "slowdown" is insulting. Try buying your own groceries, sir. Or running a small business, where every dollar more you spend on gas, every extra $0.02 postage you are charged, all of it eats into your profits, and makes you wonder at what point you just need to stop doing business.

Does President Bush think he's doing anyone a favor by soft-pedalling the problem? Seriously?

Ok, message over. Go ahead and flame me.